Socjofizyczny model sojuszy i fragmentacji między krajami: Przypadek Ukrainy i Rosji (*)
[A sociophysics model of alliances and fragmentation among countries: The case of 
Ukraine and Russia]

Serge Galam (CEVIPOF - Centre for Political Research, Sciences Po and CNRS, Paris, France)


I will discuss the dynamics of alliances - fragmentation among a set of countries using 
a sociophysics model. Countries are coupled via pair propensities, which favor either 
cooperation or conflict, depending on the historical building of each propensity. 
Propensities have been accumulated over long periods of time and cannot be modified by 
country respective wills. In contrast, each country is free to satisfy or not a given 
propensity with respectively a benefit or a cost. The principle that the enemy of my enemy 
is my friend and the enemy of my friend is my enemy reduces each country choice to either 
one of two opposite coalitions. Given a set of propensities, some countries may be unable 
to satisfy simultaneously all their pair propensities. As a consequence, instabilities are 
produced, which in turn drive a concomitant dynamic of fragmentation and alliances 
resulting in an endless cycles of alliance reshaping.

In face of this countries hopelessly search for stability. I will show that the building 
of competing supranational coalitions, which are joined separately on an individual basis, 
does stabilize the set of alliances. Cooperation prevails between the respective members 
of each coalition in parallel with conflict between the two coalitions. Major 
illustrations of such supra-coalitions are NATO, EU and former Warsaw Pact. The model 
sheds light on the instabilities, which took place in Eastern Europe following the Warsaw 
pact dissolution, as well as the preservation of stability in Western Europe. Furthermore, 
the results hint at the possibility of an additional agenda beyond the per se Russian 
invasion of Ukraine. Prospects for the related geopolitical consequences are highlighted.


(*) Based on: S.Galam, The dynamics of alliances: The case of Ukraine and Russia, Journal 
of Computational Science 71 (2023) 102058