Praktyczne zastosowanie konformalnej prognozy do składania zleceń na rynek dnia 
następnego - punkt widzenia tradera energii elektrycznej
[A practical application of Conformal Prediction in day-ahead market bidding 
– an energy trader's point of view]

Christopher Kath (HEMF, Universität Duisburg-Essen & RWE, Essen, D)  


Many scientific papers present great advances in research but lack one thing: the 
additional gains in a company's value-chain. Is the proposed solution achievable 
with reasonable effort, can it be implemented to solve real-world problems? We want 
to elaborate on these aspects based on a concept called Conformal Prediction. While 
initially stemming from the world of machine learning, it has never been applied or 
analyzed in the context of short-term electricity price forecasting. Therefore, we 
elaborate the aspects that render Conformal Prediction worthwhile to know and 
explain why its simple - yet very effective - idea has worked in other fields of 
application and why its characteristics are promising for short-term power 
applications as well. We present how it can easily be utilized in a traditional 
short-term power trading problem, describe its implementation and show possible 
benefits for a power trading company.