Prognozowanie spreadu między cenami spotowymi i intraday energii elektrycznej
[Forecasting the spread between spot and intraday electricity prices]

Katarzyna Maciejowska (KBO, PWr, Wrocław)


The rising share of Renewable Electricity Sources (RES) in the generation 
mix have led to the development of intraday electricity markets, which offer the 
possibility of trading energy close to the delivery time. Small RES utilities may now 
sell on both the spot and intraday markets, in order to increase their profits and 
reduce the risk. An efficient choice between these markets is a new challenge to 
utility owners. In this talk, econometric models aiming at forecasting the spread 
between spot and intraday markets are proposed. Their performance is evaluated with 
two data sets from the German and Polish electricity markets. The results indicate 
that a trading strategy based on the proposed models results in a profit increase and 
hence can be recommended to energy sellers.