Modelowanie symulacyjne zjawisk demograficznych
[Simulation modeling of demographic trends]

Bożena Mielczarek, Jacek Zabawa (KBO, PWr, Wrocław)


Demographic analyses play a supporting role in many socioeconomic studies. From 
among several mathematical methods to study demographic phenomena, simulation 
offers a proven approach called chronological aging. The best results are achieved 
using a variation of the method that assumes the availability of historical data 
with the same level of aggregation. This level of detail is usually available at 
the national or regional level; however, while collecting data that describe 
smaller regions, there are difficulties in obtaining the necessary information. We 
will present an approach that we call ‘hierarchical cohorting’, which could be a 
solution when empirical data are not as detailed as needed for performing credible 
population projections.