Wycena działalności elektrowni wodnej przy założonym poziomie niezawodności 
[Reliability-constrained hydropower valuation]

Antony Ware (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Calgary, Canada)


Maximizing the long-term value of hydropower generation requires management of uncertain 
reservoir inflows, potentially variable constraints on outflows, and exposure to possibly 
wildly varying power prices. We describe a stochastic dynamic programming approach to the 
quantification of reservoir reliability (for example, measures of the risk of over-topping 
the reservoir or failing to satisfy downstream flow requirements) and a related approach to 
determining the reservoir flow strategy that maximizes expected revenue, subject to defined 
target reliability levels.